PREVIOUS ENGINEERED SEVERE STORM EVENTS:
1. Auckland Millennium Celebration, 2000
2. From "Cold Showers" to "Cold Snaps", 2003
3. Summer, 2003-04
4. The Big Flood, Feb 2004
5. Bay of Plenty floods, July 2004
6. Floods-Blizzard, Aug 2004

Rain on 119 days this year - and more's on the way
NZ Herald 27.10.2004
"... For the year to date it's been close to a record but it was saved by a record-dry March," said National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research scientist Georgina Griffiths."This year has been a really mixed bag for New Zealand, stormy and unsettled with very large swings such as the extreme cold in August and the one-in-100-year Manawatu floods."
Rain has fallen in Auckland on 119 days so far this year; the annual average is 111 days... Later this week, the weather will get worse. Rain is expected over much of the country by Friday as a low-pressure system moves in from the west, followed by a cold southerly change on Saturday... But by Friday the low pressure will bring rain to much of the south. [...]
Grey, windy summer in store for us
NZ Herald 04.11.2004
After enduring a winter of severe flooding and icy weather, New Zealanders will be rewarded with ... a decidedly average summer. Niwa released its seasonal climate forecast yesterday and the outlook is for windy, grey weather rather than endless days of golden sun. Weak El Nino conditions are expected to continue next year, which will mean strong west to southwest winds over the country until January. In El Nino years the trade winds weaken, giving northern New Zealand relatively cold, dry weather... MetService meteorologists are forecasting gusty northwesterlies about and south of Wellington for tomorrow and are warning people to save their fireworks until Friday, when the winds should ease. A low-pressure system is crossing the Tasman Sea. MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said the northwest flow ahead of this low would bring gusty conditions to the Cook Strait area today and hot, dry weather to the east of the South Island.
Storm's blast leaves trail of damage
NZ Herald 16.11.2004
The wild weather that rolled across the upper half of the North Island overnight on Sunday headed south yesterday, carrying a mix of high winds, heavy rainfall, thunder and lightning. The storm left 8000 homes in Gisborne without power after lightning hit a transformer. Roofs in some other centres were damaged in the battering and trees and branches were down. And the action is not over yet. Forecasters warn that heavy, thundery showers will move back on to the North Island later today...  Waikato and Bay of Plenty were thrashed by rain, battered by gales and unsettled by severe thunderstorms as the front passed through early yesterday. A carport roof was whipped away from a block of flats at Omanu, near Mt Maunganui. Firefighters were called to dismantle the heap of iron and timber which landed 40m away and threatened to take flight again. Debris littered streets and driveways as squalls tore down branches and leaves. Rotorua got a dousing of 34mm of rain over 24 hours and the Eastern Bay of Plenty ranges and the Coromandel's Pinnacles were soaked. High winds whipped Wellington yesterday afternoon, with gusts of up to 100 km/h in exposed places. On 560m-high Mt Kaukau, 124km/h was recorded. MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said strong winds affecting all areas from Taranaki to Nelson in the west and from Hawkes Bay to Marlborough in the east were caused by a deep low-pressure centre that had formed at the back end of the front that crossed on Sunday night. [...]
'Ordinary' summer predicted
STUFF THURSDAY, 18 NOVEMBER 2004
Holidaymakers hoping for a long, hot summer may be in for a disappointment. The weather may be one of normal temperatures and dry conditions in the north and east of the country, but cooler and wetter in the west and southwest, according to predictions released by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) today.
Air temperatures are expected to be near average in the North Island and eastern South Island, and average or below average elsewhere. Rainfall is expected to be normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island and the eastern South Island, and normal or above normal in western regions of both islands... But predictions do not always become reality. In August to October air temperatures were lower than predicted by NIWA in all regions. There was less rainfall than predicted in the north of the North Island and parts of the west of the South Island, while the south of the North Island and parts of the eastern and southern South Island were wetter than predicted.
COMMENT:  Foreshore and Seabed Bill passed 19 November 2004.
'Average' summer in the wind
www.dompost.co.nz THURSDAY, 02 DECEMBER 2004
As the mercury touched 26 degrees in Napier and Hastings on the first day of summer, a prominent forecaster predicts most of the country can expect an "average" summer. Warm conditions yesterday... are not an indication of the weather we can expect for the rest of summer. Bob McDavitt from MetService said extreme weather like that summer, including the disastrous February floods, was most unlikely. Conditions in the south and west of the country would be wet and cool, while it would be dry and sunny in the north and east. Temperatures, sunshine hours and rainfall in most areas would be close to normal. The weather would be warmest in late January and early February, and the most settled be in March... New Zealand's weather would be dominated by a weak El Nino pattern, which would ensure fewer tropical weather systems than normal making their way to our shores. [...]
Keep winter woollies handy - summer could be cool
NZ Herald 02.12.04
Don't pack away your winter clothes just yet - the early signs are that we may be in for a colder summer than usual. The sea temperature at Auckland University's Leigh marine laboratory has been colder than usual since February and is still only 15.8C, almost 2C colder than normal for this time of year. "My guess is that it will be a colder than average summer," said the laboratory's climate monitoring supervisor, Jo Evans.
But as usual, just as summer starts, forecasters are hedging their bets. Dr Jim Salinger of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said he saw no reason to change Niwa's last long-range forecast for "average or near-average" But the above-average temperatures were in the southern North Island and South Island. Auckland Airport recorded the highest November sunshine hours since records started there in 1963, but with temperatures slightly below average and only half the usual rainfall. As a small country in the middle of the ocean, New Zealand's climate is dominated by what happens at sea. Niwa's sea surface temperature measurements, taken from satellites, showed colder than usual seas around most of the country in October, and its official outlook predicted that the sea would stay about 0.5C colder than usual from November to January. But in November, the colder-than-average area shrank to a small patch off Northland's east coast and a larger area around the southern South Island.
The experts agree that the weather is displaying "mild El Nino" conditions, when the trade winds across the Pacific weaken, bringing less warm surface water to the seas around New Zealand and Australia and more relatively cold, dry weather. But the former Leigh laboratory director who set up Leigh's daily monitoring system in 1967, Dr Bill Ballantine, said this year's patterns were "peculiar even by peculiar standards", starting with the storm that produced February's widespread floods. "Since then we have had a return to nearly normal and gone down again several times. A fortnight ago it went down sharply again... we basically don't understand it at all."
COMMENT: If climate scientists do not understand it's probably because they are stuck in the old materialist Cartesian- Newtonian paradigm. Time for a reality check.
High winds halt planes, lift off roofs
STUFF MONDAY, 06 DECEMBER 2004
Planes were flying back into Wellington today after high winds closed the airport, lifted roofs and cut power to some parts of the central and lower North Island yesterday. MetService forecaster Andy Downs said gusts of up to 140kmh hit parts of Wellington late last night as the gale force southerly hit its peak. Winds of up to 110kmh prevented planes flying in and out of closed Wellington International Airport just before 7pm, but a spokesman today said flights had resumed this morning. ... Niwa figures show an average nationwide air temperature in November of 14.3C, or 0.6C above average. Mr Downs said winds in exposed higher parts of Wellington peaked at around 140kmh. He said gusts of 100-110km hit lower parts of the city. Kaikoura experienced gusts of up to 105kmh and Wairarapa and southern Hawke's Bay gusts of up to 100kmh, knocking out power to some parts of Wairarapa. Most areas were spared heavy rain, but Wellington's eastern hills and the Ruahine Ranges, near Palmerston North received between 100mm and 150mm, he said... He said the centre of the deepening low was far more ferocious, but passed about 200-300km west of New Zealand. [...]
Metservice issues weather warning
TVNZ Dec 18, 2004
The Metservice is warning motorists in the lower South Island to take care as an unseasonable spell of cold weather moves up the country. Lead forecaster John Crouch says an unstable cold southerly front should bring snow showers to parts of the South Island, and cold temperatures and rain elsewhere. He says up to four centimetres of snow could settle on some higher roads in western areas.
Grim weather causes chaos
TVNZ Dec 19, 2004
A cold, stormy weather front lashed it's way across the country on Saturday night, causing dangerous conditions for travellers. A two-week-old baby boy and his mother died in a horrific car crash near Taupo, in which passengers were thrown up to 50m away from the car when the driver lost control in wet, slippery conditions... Travelling was also icy and dangerous in other areas of the North Island, such as the Desert Road. On the Cook Strait, ferry passengers faced 5m swells, while Lynx ferry cancellations sent travellers scrambling for other ferry bookings. Freezing wind and cloud has hampered search efforts for missing hunter Donald Hooker in rugged bush near Taumaranui... The rain pelted its way as far up as Auckland, with massive hailstones denting and puncturing homes.
Hail in Auckland as icy weather hits the country
NZ Herald 19.12.04
Some parts of New Zealand are under serious threat of a white Christmas next week. Snow in Queenstown and hail in Auckland yesterday capped off a shocking week of weather - and left us reaching for the winter woollies... Ten centimetres of snow fell at Coronet Peak, while Christmas shoppers in Auckland were pelted by hail and rain as they endured a low of 9C. MetService expects the wintry weather to continue well into this week, but predicts sunshine for some areas by Christmas. MetService ambassador Bob McDavitt said the unseasonal weather was caused by low-pressure systems south of the Chathams. A high crossing the northern Tasman Sea was expected to bring fine weather to the north of New Zealand later this week. But the chances of a sunny Christmas were lower in southern parts of the country, with north-westerlies likely in the South Island and showers possible in Fiordland. Niwa senior climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said the outlook for summer was slightly better than last year in the North Island, but worse in the South. Summer would be windier than usual though, especially in the Wellington region. Snow is expected on the Desert Road this morning. [...]
Unseasonable weather having an impact
TVNZ Dec 20, 2004
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric research says December could be a record cold month. A southerly blast over the weekend brought hail and snow to some areas of the country, as well as strong winds and rain. Weekend temperatures in the North Island were five or six degrees below average for the North Island at this time of year. But the South Island was worse with Dunedin and Invercargill recording temperatures six and eight degrees below average. NIWA says average temperatures in the South Island are four degrees below normal, which could put this month on track to be a record cold December.
The bad weather is having a big impact nationwide and not just on people being unable to head to the beach to top up their tan. Fruit growers say the recent bad weather will mean less of the traditional summer fruit like cherries and strawberries for Christmas Day. A number of orchards in the main fruit and berry growing areas were hit by hail storms over the weekend, causing some damage to berries and pipfruit in Hawke's Bay, Waikato, Auckland and Canterbury. For the rest of the country, it was rainy and windy. Hail has damaged or wiped out some berry crops, while elsewhere cooler temperatures are delaying the ripening process.Hastings grower and Fruit Growers Federation director Ru Collin says the weekend's hail comes on top of a very trying month. Gale force winds in Hawke's Bay earlier this month caused severe damage to fruit crops nearing harvest.Central Otago grower Gary Bennetts says the unseasonably cold, wet month has ruined some early varieties of cherries, which means little good fruit around for the domestic market. North Island fruit growers haven't fared much better.Waikato strawberry grower Terry McFadden says his crop has been reduced by a third because of the cold and he says that will have an impact on prices.
The MetService says the weekend's cold snap was caused by chilled air moving up from the Southern Ocean. The unseasonable weather stopped fast-ferry sailings in Cook Strait on Sunday and dumped mothball-sized hailstones on Auckland and snow on the Desert Road. The lead forecaster at the Met Service John Crouch says a patch of cold air has been wandering around the Southern Ocean and would normally have passed below New Zealand. But he says a large low near the Chatham Islands flicked the air north and a high in the Tasman Sea helped funnel it over the country. MetService says very few places in New Zealand can expect fine weather for Christmas Day. MetService senior forecaster Eric Brenstrum says that while the cold snap may ease over the next few days more cold weather should be expected for at least a few more weeks. He says showers should be expected in Northland and Auckland around Christmas and the finest weather will most likely be seen in the West Coast of the South Island.
Sun is back on Christmas Day
NZ Herald 20.12.04 
After a weekend lashed with rain, hail, freezing gales and even snow in some places, weather forecasters are picking Christmas Day will be relatively fine. But first there will be more snow, rain and possibly thunder this week.
Forecasters are predicting sunshine for Saturday - a stark difference to this weekend, which threatened to give North Islanders their first white Christmas. Hailstorms in Auckland yesterday morning left the motorways with icy lanes looking as if they had been covered in snow. Port Waikato residents woke to find their black-sand beach covered in hail so thick some residents said they could have been at Mt Ruapehu. The wild weather, which damaged some Auckland homes, was widespread. Passengers boarding ferries across Cook Strait had long delays as the boats were lashed by swells of up to 8m. A 7pm sailing of the Lynx fast ferry was cancelled last night. Snow fell in the Central North Island, dusting the Desert Rd, the central mountains and the Kaimanawa Ranges. In the South Island snow fell to 600m in several towns.
MetService senior forecaster Erick Brenstrum said the unusual weather was caused by an outbreak of very cold air from near the Antarctic ice sheet. Mr Brenstrum said the bad news was that the wintry weather had not completely gone.
He predicted cold fronts would hit on Tuesday and on Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday. By Saturday the situation should be calmer and there is a good chance many North Island residents would get a fine Christmas Day.
Chilly spell hits summer fruit
NZ Herald 21.12.04
The cost of topping a Christmas pavlova with juicy strawberries has nearly doubled in some stores after the weekend’s wild weather. Like many popular summer fruits, the strawberry did not fare well during the hail, lightning and thunderstorms that lashed many parts of the country... But it is not just strawberries that have suffered from the bad weather which is predicted to continue until Christmas Eve. The slow start to spring combined with a noticeable lack of sunshine during the past few months has meant summer fruits are taking longer to ripen. That, combined with the recent storm damage, means Christmas fruit is slightly harder to come by and more expensive this year.
Pack togs but keep woollies on hand
NZ Herald 22.12.04
If you thought it was still October then you might be right. The temperature - more than 20 days into "summer" - is much the same as it was weeks ago. Niwa principal climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said December was struggling to reach normal summer temperatures usually in the high teens to early 20s.The mercury had more often than not hovered in the early teens - temperatures normally experienced in October. "We have been in a year that can only be described as dramatic and the drama continues," said Dr Salinger. "The temperatures we are having now are typical of the end of October." MetService predicts a break in the bad weather that will hopefully bring periods of sunshine to most parts of the country for Christmas Day - in between the odd shower.
Further out there’s a prospect of - you guessed it - rain on New Year’s Eve. But, just as many people consider packing their woollies instead of togs for the holidays, Mr Salinger said there was hope on the horizon. NIWA seasonal predictions for January and February could bring an end to the unusually cold temperatures. Mr Salinger said winds from the west and highs over the top of the North Island were expected to increase the temperatures to about average or slightly above average next month. Last January Auckland temperatures hovered in the high teens to mid 20s.
Rain, tornado, floods - it's our summer
NZ Herald 23.12.04
The approach of Christmas Day usually brings thoughts of sunshine, sunshine and more sunshine. But yesterday, on the longest day of the year, Auckland was hit by a mini tornado, Christchurch had floods and sea temperatures remained 3C below the average for the 11th day in a row. Elsewhere, thunder, lightning and hail storms caused chaos, and holidaymakers reconsidered plans to get away to the beach. It was hardly summer. The temperature in Auckland ranged from 13C to 19C, in Wellington it was 10C to 18C, and in Christchurch it got down to 8C before rising to a balmy 17C.
MetService forecaster Geoff Sanders said the weather was "quite bizarre" but the mini-tornado reported in Auckland was in keeping with the lightning and thunder occurring around the country. The tornado started with strong winds that hit Penrose businesses with such force at 8.10am that windows were broken. Spandex operations and logistics manager Les Balderston said he was sitting in his office when the door blew open and papers went flying. The wind travelled through the office before exploding out of the side of the building.
Heavy hailstorms this week damaged fruit in Tasman, Canterbury, Hawkes Bay and parts of Auckland. In the South Island, a close watch is being kept on Otago rivers after two days of steady rain. The Otago Regional Council said 30mm to 55mm of rain fell in most of Otago since yesterday. The council's environmental information and science director, Dr John Threlfall, said the rain had been persistent if not intense... Weather Ambassador Bob McDavitt said slight relief was in sight - but not for long. Cold southerlies arriving on Friday should weaken briefly on Christmas Day and a sunny break is being forecast for many places. But the bad weather is likely to return for Boxing Day. [...]
No cheer for Southland farmers
TVNZ Dec 23, 2004
South Island farmers are being hit hard by New Zealand's spate of wild weather. Torrential rain and paddock flooding has resulted in a decline in production levels... On the West Coast, rainfall is 600mm up on what it was this time last year, and sunshine is 300 hours down. The weather is also taking its toll on Southland lambs. John Threfall of the Otago Regional Council says with the possibility of more storms farmers will have to watch catchments closely. Weather experts say they see no obvious end to the wild weather until mid-January.
Kiwis fly off to the sun
STUFF FRIDAY, 24 DECEMBER 2004
Kiwis and tourists fed up with the rain and cold in New Zealand are booking escapes to warmer climes, a leading travel agency says.Flight Centre managing director Graeme Moore said the agency had been inundated with people complaining about the weather. Bookings to Fiji and other Pacific islands had increased. Consultants had also taken bookings from overseas visitors dis-gruntled about the weather. "One American couple booked a holiday in Rarotonga the day they flew into New Zealand because they were so disappointed that it was cold and pouring with rain." Several Kiwis had also cancelled domestic travel and booked last-minute trips overseas, despite the extra costs involved in booking flights and accommodation at short notice. One family who had planned to sail around New Zealand over summer had sold their boat in favour of a holiday in Rarotonga. "We only hope the weather improves before there's a real impact on the tourism industry," Mr Moore said.
Tourists flee bad weather
TVNZ Dec 24, 2004
The dismal start to summer and less than encouraging weather prospects is sending tourists and kiwis packing. Travel consultants from Flight Centre, one of New Zealand's largest travel agencies, say they have been inundated with people fed up with the cold and rain and wanting to escape. Managing director Graeme Moore says inquiries and bookings to Fiji and the Pacific Islands have been on the rise in recent days, with most clients attributing their plans to the New Zealand weather. It's not just tourists who are despairing of the lack of sun. A number of kiwis have booked last minute trips, even if a lack of hotel and flight availability has meant paying more for the privilege.
Enjoy it while it lasts - the break in the clouds will end tomorrow
NZ Herald 27.12.04
Summer finally arrived in the South Island yesterday and the rain even stayed away from Auckland’s major sporting events. It should also be sunny across most of the country today - but the MetService says it won’t last. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be rainy and cold as a westerly front arrives. Everywhere from Invercargill to Nelson experienced sunny conditions to some degree yesterday after several miserable weeks of grey skies, low temperatures and rain. However, it did not last long in the south, with more rain and thunderstorms sending temperatures plummeting in the afternoon. MetService forecaster Mads Naeraa said Dunedin reached 20C before rain and hail hit... Christchurch also enjoyed blue skies, but a chilly easterly meant many of those brave enough to step outside remained wrapped in coats and scarves.
Further north Gisborne reached 21C and although Whakatane was pelted with 10mm of rain in two hours, the air was not cold. Mr Naeraa said today would be fine and sunny on the east coast of both islands but cloud and some drizzle would plague the west. He recommended holidaymakers should hold out for the first week of the new year, when a new ridge of high pressure is expected to arrive, bringing sunshine. [...]
Hailstorms to cut $3.4m off orchardist profits
STUFF MONDAY, 27 DECEMBER 2004
Hailstorms which hit various parts of the Tasman district last week caused a loss of about $3.4 million in export earnings for orchardists. Pipfruit New Zealand chairman Ian Palmer said initial assessments on the amount of damage caused by hail which fell in Riwaka, Tasman and Mahana showed a substantial dent in next year's harvest.
Heavy rain warning for high country
TVNZ Dec 28, 2004
The Department of Conservation is warning people not to head into the South Island mountains for the next couple of days as exceptionally heavy rain begins to fall. A third-of-a-metre of rain and northerly gales are forecast between Arthurs Pass and Fiordland over the next 30 hours, with rain peaking at 30 millimetres an hour. A DoC ranger at Franz Josef, Katrina Henderson, says trampers shouldn't head into the back country and those already in the mountains should sit tight as creek levels rise. She says visitors at DoC campgrounds on the coast are likely to have an uncomfortable couple of days, but shouldn't be in danger of flooding.
Heavy rains due to head up from south
NZ Herald  29.12.04
The MetService last night sounded heavy rain warnings for the West Coast of the South Island and Buller-Nelson and said it expected bad weather to then wash over parts of the northern North Island. Spokesman Andy Downs said the slow-moving system rolling on to the South Island "has all the ingredients for good heavy rain". Canterbury manager Hayward Osborn said the approaching system appeared to be a "major event". Mr Downs warned of "exceptional rainfall" for Westland and down to Milford Sound overnight, with the heaviest falls likely in South Westland. He forecast up to 350mm by midnight tonight in that area, with rain falling at rates of up to 30mm per hour... Mr Downs said the weather system coming in from the Tasman was moving slowly. "Normally the systems go through quickly but this one isn’t and it’s packing a lot of moisture."That meant it had the capacity to dump a lot of rain over an extended period. The front, moving northwest, was expected to produce falls of 100mm to 150mm in the Buller-Nelson ranges. It was then forecast to move across Taranaki, the central high country and the Bay of Plenty. Wellington, Wairarapa and the lower east coast of the North Island should escape the brunt of the rain, Mr Downs said. The front would be followed later in the week by a low-pressure system from the Tasman, producing unsettled, showery weather for the New Year. [...]
Wet wet wet and more a safe bet
NZ Herald 31.12.04
 Empty beaches and boats confined to their trailers were the hallmarks of rain-saturated holiday resorts yesterday... As trampers were being rescued from rising floodwaters in the South Island, holidaymakers further north opted for cinemas and shopping while hoping for the heavy rain to ease in time for New Year celebrations tonight... heavy grey clouds had arrived by Wednesday and the rain set in yesterday, dumping more than 100mm over the Coromandel and Bay of Plenty.The rain continued with a vengeance over eastern areas last night.
COMMENT:  Foretaste of what to expect for 2005? Check this out.

Last month the 5th coldest December on record
STUFF TUESDAY, 04 JANUARY 2005
Last month was the fifth coldest December on record and the coldest since 1945. The national average temperature of 13.4 deg C was 2.2 deg C below normal, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) National Climate Centre said in a statement. The only lower years since reliable records began in 1853 were 1902 (the record low average of 12.9degC), 1911, 1914 and 1945. Temperatures reached record lows for December in some parts of the South Island. They were up to 4degC below average in inland parts of Canterbury, Otago and Southland, Niwa said. The highest temperature recorded was 31degC at Napier Airport on December 2, and the lowest minus 3.7degC at Wreys Bush in Southland on December 20. Rainfall was more than double the average figure for the month in eastern regions from Hawke's Bay to Southland, and above average in many parts of the North Island... Sunshine hours were well below average in parts of Northland, Auckland, Waikato, King Country, Manawatu, Otago and Southland, but near average elsewhere.
December chill the worst for 59 years
NZ Herald 04.01.05
... Snow, frost, hail and a tornado marked the first month of summer with the coldest temperatures recorded in December since 1945. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research figures for last month show it was the fifth coldest since records were established in 1853. The national average temperature was just 13.4C - 2.2C below normal and more like spring than summer. The record-breaking low temperatures... slowed the growth and ripening of berries, stone fruit and crops... And if you thought there was a dire shortage of sun, there was. Auckland recorded only 174 hours of sunshine - 83 per cent of the normal figure and the third lowest since records began in 1963. [...]
Hail, frost hit pipfruit exports
TVNZ Jan 6, 2005
Pipfruit New Zealand is forecasting this year's export crop will be down nearly 12% to about 18.55 million cartons, mainly because of hail and frost damage. PNZ chairman Ian Palmer says indicative regional crop assessments are being completed, with the biennial nature of some varieties and early thinning indicating a lighter crop. However, the quality and size of the fruit is looking good at this stage, he says. Crop losses from hail damage before Christmas are expected to be up to one million cartons, or 5% of total export volumes. This represents a loss of around $30 million in export earnings. There has been hail damage across all growing regions. Hawke's Bay, the largest growing region, has lost about half a million cartons, Nelson about a quarter of a million and Wairarapa and Waikato 50,000 to 70,000 cartons. Gisborne and Central Otago have reported minimal damage. [...]