Ethan Zorick's analysis of Knights vs Light Horse

Knights vs. Light Horse

or ... Will you please remove your lance from my head...

by Ethan Zorick

I have found the DBM players have a fairly consistent belief that Lh will defeat Kn in a straight up fight. I think this belief comes from two separate causes:

1. This is basically the one case were a lighter mounted troop gets a quick kill against something perceived as heavier. Almost all (Wb excepted) the other quick kills in the game come from heavy troops (like Kn) quick killing foot. This like Ps quick killing El is sort of an exception to the pattern.

2. Lh can get lucky and kill the Kn. Consider the difference in facing Kn with Cv or Lh. The Cv basically can't get lucky in a straight up fight and kill the Kn (please don't inundate me with your anecdotes but basically this is right, 10 Cv(O) v 10 Kn(O) (even Irr Kn(O)) basically will always end in tears for the Cv. Assuming of course a straight up fight, no flanks, maneuver, etc. Lh generally will die faster but have a much better chance of getting lucky and winning the fight. So if you are in a dominant position and have a choice you would prefer to grind down other troops with Kn than take on the relatively risky to fight Lh.

In any case here are the actual probabilities: Note: I don't list the probabilites for Lh(F) as they are not as
straight-forward to calculate - but are never better off than Lh(O)

If you are Kn(O) or Kn(F):

When facing ... Lh(O) Lh(S) Lh(I)

with Kn(O) Lh is killed 9 times in 36 Lh is killed 4 times in 36 Lh is killed 15 times in 36

(or Kn(F) Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36 Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36 Lh is recoiled 15 times in 36

Combat is a draw 4 times in 36 Combat is a draw 9 times in 36

Kn is killed 6 times in 36 Kn is killed 6 times in 36 Kn is killed 6 times in 36

with Kn(S) Lh is killed 9 times in 36 Lh is killed 4 times in 36 Lh is killed 15 times in 36

Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36 Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36 Lh is recoiled 15 times in 36

Combat is draw 7 times/36 Combat is draw 13 times/36 Combat is draw 4 times/36

Kn is killed 3 times in 36 Kn is killed 3 times in 36 Lh is killed 15 times in 36

with Kn(I) Lh is killed 9 times in 36 Lh is killed 4 times in 36 Lh is killed 15 times in 36

Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36 Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36 Lh is recoiled 11 times in 36

Combat is draw 5 times/36 Combat is draw 4 times/36

Kn is killed 10 times in 36 Kn is killed 10 times in 36 Kn is killed 6 times in 36

When facing ...	Lh(O)	Lh(S)	Lh(I)
with Kn(O)	Lh is killed 9 times in 36	Lh is killed 4 times in 36	Lh is killed 15 times in 36
(or Kn(F)	Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36	Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36	Lh is recoiled 15 times in 36
	Combat is a draw 4 times in 36	Combat is a draw 9 times in 36
	Kn is killed 6 times in 36	Kn is killed 6 times in 36	Kn is killed 6 times in 36

with Kn(S)	Lh is killed 9 times in 36	Lh is killed 4 times in 36	Lh is killed 15 times in 36
	Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36	Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36	Lh is recoiled 15 times in 36
	Combat is draw 7 times/36	Combat is draw 13 times/36	Combat is draw 4 times/36
	Kn is killed 3 times in 36	Kn is killed 3 times in 36	Lh is killed 15 times in 36

with Kn(I)	Lh is killed 9 times in 36	Lh is killed 4 times in 36	Lh is killed 15 times in 36
	Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36	Lh is recoiled 17 times in 36	Lh is recoiled 11 times in 36
		Combat is draw 5 times/36	Combat is draw 4 times/36
	Kn is killed 10 times in 36	Kn is killed 10 times in 36	Kn is killed 6 times in 36